Accéder directement au contenu Accéder directement à la navigation
Article dans une revue

Which fault threatens me most? Bridging the gap between geologic data-providers and seismic risk practitioners

Abstract : The aim of the Fault2SHA European Seismological Commission Working Group Central Apennines laboratory is to enhance the use of geological data in fault-based seismic hazard and risk assessment and to promote synergies between data providers (earthquake geologists), end-users and decision-makers. Here we use the Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database where geologic data are provided in the form of characterized fault traces, grouped into faults and master faults, with individual slip rate estimates. The proposed methodology first derives slip rate profiles for each master fault. Master faults are then divided into distinct sections of length comparable to the seismogenic depth to allow consideration of variable slip rates along master faults and the exploration of multi-fault ruptures in the computations. The methodology further allows exploration of epistemic uncertainties documented in the database (e.g. master fault definition, slip rates) as well as additional parameters required to characterize the seismogenic potential of fault sources (e.g. 3D fault geometries). To illustrate the power of the methodology, in this paper we consider only one branch of the uncertainties affecting each step of the computation procedure. The resulting hazard and typological risk maps allow both data providers and end-users (1) to visualize the faults that threaten specific localities the most, (2) to appreciate the density of observations used for the computation of slip rate profiles, and (3) interrogate the degree of confidence on the fault parameters documented in the database (activity and location certainty). Finally, closing the loop, the methodology highlights priorities for future geological investigations in terms of where improvements in the density of data within the database would lead to the greatest decreases in epistemic uncertainties in the hazard and risk calculations. Key to this new generation of fault-based seismic hazard and risk methodology are the user-friendly open source codes provided with this publication, documenting, step-by-step, the link between the geological database and the relative contribution of each section to seismic hazard and risk at specific localities.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Liste complète des métadonnées
Contributeur : Irsn ATHENA Connectez-vous pour contacter le contributeur
Soumis le : lundi 18 octobre 2021 - 21:00:34
Dernière modification le : vendredi 5 août 2022 - 15:03:56
Archivage à long terme le : : mercredi 19 janvier 2022 - 21:56:30


Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte


Distributed under a Creative Commons Paternité 4.0 International License




Oona Scotti, Francesco Visini, Joanna Faure Walker, Laura Peruzza, Bruno Pace, et al.. Which fault threatens me most? Bridging the gap between geologic data-providers and seismic risk practitioners. Frontiers in Earth Science, Frontiers Media, 2021, 8, pp.626401. ⟨10.3389/feart.2020.626401⟩. ⟨hal-03384341⟩



Consultations de la notice


Téléchargements de fichiers